Desmenuzando la victoria de Morena: Análisis de la Mesa de Ruta 2024

Guillermo Torres Quiroz, director of the digital platform Saber Votar, and Verónica Ortiz, lawyer and collaborator of El Heraldo de México, conducted an analysis of the electoral day on Sunday, June 2nd.

Both experts presented percentages and debated around citizen participation and why Morena obtained the majority of votes in the different positions to be elected during the Ruta 2024 Analysis Roundtable with Luis Cárdenas on Heraldo Televisión.

Verónica Ortiz emphasized that despite the large turnout in these elections where a large number of positions would be renewed throughout the country, citizen participation fell short, as only 60% of the population voted.

“We fell short as citizens, that 40% I don’t know if it’s disinterest or apathy, I think the message was a broad call to vote (…) it was one of the most significant elections in our history.”

The director of Saber Votar highlighted that they conducted a survey on the motivations of the voter, and the results showed the following:
– 50% of people consider security as the main issue.
– 50% of respondents already knew who to vote for before the electoral campaigns.
– 50% believed that the current government should continue, and 36% said the current government should change.
– 7 out of 10 beneficiaries of social programs voted for Morena.
– The elderly population and those with lower incomes were the ones who voted the most for Morena.
– 43% of those surveyed identify with the Morena party.
– 15% of those who voted for Claudia Sheinbaum do not feel identified with any party, but were attracted by social programs.
– 60% do not approve of the current deputies, 45-55% approve of the current governors of the states, and 71% approve of President Andrés Manuel López Obrador.

In addition, Guillermo Torres considered that the population that voted on June 2nd “was not so much to elect Claudia Sheinbaum but to evaluate President López Obrador.”

Verónica Ortiz pointed out that September will be the litmus test to know the counterweight that Morena has in Congress, as it will be from the first of the ninth month that President López Obrador will have the majority in Congress and could give the green light to all his constitutional reform initiatives.

In that sense, Ortiz detailed that this is where both economic counterweights with the markets come in, as well as the counterweights stemming from being part of the USMCA and International Organizations and Treaties that have democratic clauses that must be respected, such as the autonomy of the Judiciary.

“We would have to see if the President will end his term saying ‘we did it, I passed all the reforms’ or if there will be a capacity for Claudia Sheinbaum to negotiate with the President, that would mark or weaken the beginning of his administration.”